Can Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs defy history to make the playoffs?
Each year after the second week of the NFL season, the long odds that teams face to make the playoffs after losing their first two games get bandied about.
The odds have hovered at just under 12% ever since the NFL expanded the season to 16 games and added a second wild-card team in 1978, with little fluctuation when additional playoff teams were added in 1990 and 2020.
None of those other teams have come off three straight Super Bowl appearances like Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
The oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook have Kansas City as a favorite to make the postseason with an implied probability of about 65%, while some other projection models have it closer to a 50-50 proposition.
Since the playoffs expanded in 2020, only five of the 43 teams (11.6%) that started 0-2 made the postseason, but 31 of those teams missed the postseason the previous year. Out of the 12 returning playoff teams that started 0-2, three made the playoffs, with the Los Angeles Rams and Baltimore doing it last season and Cincinnati in 2022.
But the goals for the Chiefs are much loftier than getting into the postseason with the team seeking a fourth Super Bowl title in the Mahomes-Andy Reid era. Only three teams — Dallas in 1993, New England in 2001 and the New York Giants in 2007 — have won a Super Bowl following a 0-2 start and only 5% of the teams that have done it since the 1970 merger won their division.
Kansas City has won nine straight division titles — two shy of New England’s record set from 2009-19 — but now is two games behind the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC West.
That has flipped the odds in the division at BetMGM, with the Chargers favored and the Chiefs at plus-250 odds to win the division. This is the first time since a three-week stretch midway through 2021 that Kansas City hasn’t been favored to win the AFC West by BetMGM, and the current odds are the longest for the Chiefs since they were plus-275 before the opener in 2018 when Mahomes began his first season as starter.
The only other team that is 0-2 after making the playoffs in 2024 is the two-time defending AFC South champion Texans, with both Houston and Kansas City losing a pair of one-score games.
There are 10 teams that have started the season 2-0, including four that missed the playoffs last season: Arizona, Cincinnati, Indianapolis and San Francisco. This is the second straight season four teams began the season 2-0 after missing the playoffs, with Minnesota and the Chargers making it to the postseason, while New Orleans and Seattle missed out.